@ARTICLE{26583204_56068785_2012, author = {Y. Lavrushina and A. Makarova and А. Kulikov}, keywords = {, quantitative assessment, operational risk exposure, expected and unexpected losses (operational V@R), IT-system failure/breakdown probability, mean downtime, business continuity matrixexponential twisting method}, title = {The model operational risk quantitative assessment (technical risk - IT-system breakdown) in statistical incorrect environment}, journal = {}, year = {2012}, number = {2(20)}, pages = {42-49}, url = {https://bijournal.hse.ru/en/2012--2(20)/56068785.html}, publisher = {}, abstract = {Yana Lavrushina - Senior Manager, Operational and Credit Risk Division, Gazprom Export LLC.Address: 9, Strastnoy bul., Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation.  E-mail: ya.lavrushina@gazpromexport.com Anastasia Makarova - Senior Specialist, Operational and Credit Risk Division, Gazprom Export LLC.Address: 9, Strastnoy bul., Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation.  E-mail: a.makarova@gazpromexport.com Alexander Kulikov - Senior Specialist, Operational and Credit Risk Division, Gazprom Export LLC.Address: 9, Strastnoy bul., Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation.  E-mail: a.kulikov@gazpromexport.comOperation risk management process is one of the methods of managing a company’s changes, conducted through improving business-processes and technologies. While bringing the business to a new level of performance, information technologies lead to its dependency on safe and trouble-free functioning of IT-equipment, infrastructure and user systems. The model considered in the article enables non-financial sector companies to calculate expected and unexpected losses due to technical risk in the statistical incorrect environment.The business architecture is supposed to be divided into independent scenarios comprising business-processes with different execution time frameworks and relevant IT-systems. Risk assessment results from modeling the support systems availability taking into account critical execution time framework. Risk exposure is derived from matrix determining scenario feasibility through access to a correspondent supporting system. The exponential twisting method is implemented to minimize calculation errors as a tool for more adequate probability assessment of the events which are in the «tail» of loss distribution.To find the unexpected losses in the model described in the article, the right-hand boundary of confidence interval is to be taken. The risk contribution analysis is based on the whole scope of business-process and IT-systems in the «tail» of loss distribution, and thus leading to severe losses.The technical analysis of the IT-architecture is an issue, but the key-note of the operational risk analysis is business-process architecture adequacy control. Therefore the proposed model allows not only to assess the operational risk but also to examine the enterprise’s business-architecture adequacy in conformity with existing IT-architecture and trouble-free functioning requirements for further reliability category establishment.}, annote = {Yana Lavrushina - Senior Manager, Operational and Credit Risk Division, Gazprom Export LLC.Address: 9, Strastnoy bul., Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation.  E-mail: ya.lavrushina@gazpromexport.com Anastasia Makarova - Senior Specialist, Operational and Credit Risk Division, Gazprom Export LLC.Address: 9, Strastnoy bul., Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation.  E-mail: a.makarova@gazpromexport.com Alexander Kulikov - Senior Specialist, Operational and Credit Risk Division, Gazprom Export LLC.Address: 9, Strastnoy bul., Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation.  E-mail: a.kulikov@gazpromexport.comOperation risk management process is one of the methods of managing a company’s changes, conducted through improving business-processes and technologies. While bringing the business to a new level of performance, information technologies lead to its dependency on safe and trouble-free functioning of IT-equipment, infrastructure and user systems. The model considered in the article enables non-financial sector companies to calculate expected and unexpected losses due to technical risk in the statistical incorrect environment.The business architecture is supposed to be divided into independent scenarios comprising business-processes with different execution time frameworks and relevant IT-systems. Risk assessment results from modeling the support systems availability taking into account critical execution time framework. Risk exposure is derived from matrix determining scenario feasibility through access to a correspondent supporting system. The exponential twisting method is implemented to minimize calculation errors as a tool for more adequate probability assessment of the events which are in the «tail» of loss distribution.To find the unexpected losses in the model described in the article, the right-hand boundary of confidence interval is to be taken. The risk contribution analysis is based on the whole scope of business-process and IT-systems in the «tail» of loss distribution, and thus leading to severe losses.The technical analysis of the IT-architecture is an issue, but the key-note of the operational risk analysis is business-process architecture adequacy control. Therefore the proposed model allows not only to assess the operational risk but also to examine the enterprise’s business-architecture adequacy in conformity with existing IT-architecture and trouble-free functioning requirements for further reliability category establishment.} }