TY - JOUR TI - The model operational risk quantitative assessment (technical risk - IT-system breakdown) in statistical incorrect environment T2 - IS - KW - quantitative assessment KW - operational risk exposure KW - expected and unexpected losses (operational V@R) KW - IT-system failure/breakdown probability KW - mean downtime KW - business continuity matrix KW - exponential twisting method AB - Yana Lavrushina - Senior Manager, Operational and Credit Risk Division, Gazprom Export LLC.Address: 9, Strastnoy bul., Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation.  E-mail: ya.lavrushina@gazpromexport.com Anastasia Makarova - Senior Specialist, Operational and Credit Risk Division, Gazprom Export LLC.Address: 9, Strastnoy bul., Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation.  E-mail: a.makarova@gazpromexport.com Alexander Kulikov - Senior Specialist, Operational and Credit Risk Division, Gazprom Export LLC.Address: 9, Strastnoy bul., Moscow, 127006, Russian Federation.  E-mail: a.kulikov@gazpromexport.comOperation risk management process is one of the methods of managing a company’s changes, conducted through improving business-processes and technologies. While bringing the business to a new level of performance, information technologies lead to its dependency on safe and trouble-free functioning of IT-equipment, infrastructure and user systems. The model considered in the article enables non-financial sector companies to calculate expected and unexpected losses due to technical risk in the statistical incorrect environment.The business architecture is supposed to be divided into independent scenarios comprising business-processes with different execution time frameworks and relevant IT-systems. Risk assessment results from modeling the support systems availability taking into account critical execution time framework. Risk exposure is derived from matrix determining scenario feasibility through access to a correspondent supporting system. The exponential twisting method is implemented to minimize calculation errors as a tool for more adequate probability assessment of the events which are in the «tail» of loss distribution.To find the unexpected losses in the model described in the article, the right-hand boundary of confidence interval is to be taken. The risk contribution analysis is based on the whole scope of business-process and IT-systems in the «tail» of loss distribution, and thus leading to severe losses.The technical analysis of the IT-architecture is an issue, but the key-note of the operational risk analysis is business-process architecture adequacy control. Therefore the proposed model allows not only to assess the operational risk but also to examine the enterprise’s business-architecture adequacy in conformity with existing IT-architecture and trouble-free functioning requirements for further reliability category establishment. AU - Y. Lavrushina AU - A. Makarova AU - А. Kulikov UR - https://bijournal.hse.ru/en/2012--2(20)/56068785.html PY - 2012 SP - 42-49 VL -