2018. No. 1 (43)

Robert A. Karayev - Professor, Head of Ecosystems Modeling Laboratory, Institute of Control Systems of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences  
Address: 9, B. Vahabzade Street, Baku, AZ1141, Azerbaijan
E-mail: karayevr@rambler.ru

Rena N. Mikailova - Associate Professor, PhD in Economics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics
Address: 6, Istiqlaliyat Street, Baku, AZ1001, Azerbaijan
E-mail: renam3@mail.ru

Islam I. Safarly - PhD in Economics, Business Development Manager, OIL SUPPLY LLC
Address: 156, Batamdar Highway, Baku, AZ1006, Azerbaijan
E-mail: islamsafarli@gmail.com

Natella Y. Sadikhova - Researcher, Institute of Control Systems of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences  
Address: 9, B. Vahabzade Street, Baku, AZ1141, Azerbaijan
E-mail: natella5@rambler.ru

Xatire F. Imamverdiyeva - Software Engineer, Institute of Control Systems of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences  
Address: 9, B. Vahabzade Street, Baku, AZ1141, Azerbaijan
E-mail: imamverdiyeva.x@gmail.com

      The article discusses the difficulties of long-term dynamic analysis of business strategies of enterprises in present-day complex and unstable economic conditions. We discuss the possibility of solving the problem by means of cognitive modeling, which has opened a new page in the management of complex systems and complex problem situations. We note the phenomenological features of complex systems and complex problem situations that exclude the possibility of their modeling using traditional economic and mathematical methods. Such features are: multifactority, dynamism, uncertainty, the high role of the mentality of the developers of the strategy and the persons making strategic decisions. The urgency of the question of ensuring the reliability of cognitive models, a significant place in which is occupied by heuristic components, is emphasized. Formalization of the latter encounters numerous difficulties (“traps”) that arise at all stages of designing cognitive models – the stages of identification, conceptualization, formalization and testing, which constitute the specifics of the development of all knowledge-based support technologies.
      Existing methods and models from relevant areas that can be useful for overcoming these difficulties are considered (strategic analysis, strategic planning, scenario analysis, scenario planning, SWOT analysis, PEST analysis, SMART technology, methods of knowledge identification, methods of psycho semantics and non-metric multidimensional scaling, methods of expert evaluation).
      The article presents a demo version of cognitive tools for dynamic analysis of strategies (cognitive map of strategy and cognitive map analysis methods), based on the ideology of cognitive modeling. Consideration is given to the application possibilities of cognitive tools in the analysis of strategies in the context of possible dynamics of the internal and external environment of the enterprise. An example of the use of cognitive tools is given.

This work was supported by the Foundation for Science Development under the President of the Azerbaijan Republic (grant No. EİF-KETPL-2-2015-1(25)-56/14/1)

Natalia F. Altukhova - Associate Professor, Head of Department of Business Informatics, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Address: 38, Scherbakovskaya Street, Moscow, 105187, Russian Federation
E-mail: nfaltuhova@fa.ru

Elena V. Vasileva - Professor, Department of Business Informatics, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Address: 38, Scherbakovskaya Street, Moscow, 105187, Russian Federation
E-mail: evvasileva@fa.ru

Mariam V. Mirzoyan - Doctoral Student, Department of Business Informatics, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Address: 38, Scherbakovskaya Street, Moscow, 105187, Russian Federation
E-mail: mvmirzoyan@fa.ru

      The introduction of new management principles in public administration is in many countries linked to the introduction of client-orientation and evaluation by results. In this connection, a good deal of attention should be directed to raising the quality of work of public administration civil servants. This problem is inextricably bound with the task of raising the qualifications and competency level of workers in public administration.  
      In this work, we present an analysis of the current situation in management of public administrations. We distinguish between the problems of managing the competences of public servants. As part of the research, we polled more than 365 public servants from the rank of specialist to chiefs of sections. We highlighted the competences in highest demand among public servants. These are general professional skills, regulatory-legal, competences of results orientation and work efficiency. Least in demand were groups of competences such as change management, self-management and professional growth. The respondents also noted the high demand for renewal of their professional knowledge. However, there remains a problem with exchange of knowledge, when the knowledge received by employees in the best case turns up in conferences but mostly remains only for personal use and is not attached to a single carrier of information.  
      We present proposals for applying an ontological approach to evaluation of the competences of public servants. The set of competences makes it possible with sufficient precision to describe the work behavior which is required for successful performance of the work in the given position or in a group of similar positions.  The application of ontologies makes it possible to link the task of evaluating competences through transformation of the enquiry into a set of terms and concepts with the concrete requirements of the project of the planned task or performed function. Computerization is one of the main components in the strategy for developing the public services. Creation of a system of decision support on the basis of mathematical methods to ensure alignment of competences of public servants with the demands made on their functions allows Human Resources to efficiently make its selection of personnel for vacancies in the public organization.

Galina A. Polynskaya - Associate Professor, Department of Marketing, Lomonosov Moscow State University
Address: 1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
E-mail: g.polinskaya@outlook.com

Margarita G. Mesropyan - Doctoral Student, Economic Sociology and Demography Specialty, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Address: 49, Leningradsky Prospekt, Moscow, 125993, Russian Federation
E-mail: m.mesropyan.93@gmail.com

      Information and communication technologies have changed the world, affecting all sectors of the national economy including the medical industry. There is rapid growth in the dependence of the quality of medical services on the use of information systems. Gradually, information systems are beginning to take over part of doctors’ work. Digitalization also has affected ordinary citizens. There is a growing popularity of electronic applications and Internet resources in the health care industry among users of the network. As a result, self-diagnosis and self-treatment are improving with their use. Therefore, it is important to assess the possibilities for the coexistence of traditional medicine with modern digital technology opportunities that the citizens are facing these days.
      The authors of this research have carried out a series of studies to identify the patterns of patient behavior using electronic applications and Internet resources for self-diagnosis, as well as factors that contribute to or impede the development of such use. The following actions were performed: high-quality content analysis of medical web applications, 40 in-depth interviews with doctors and pharmacists, a mini focus group with representatives of the health service, as well as an online survey of two hundred respondents in the social network Facebook.
      As a result of the study, patients were segmented according to typical behavioral patterns with regard to the use of electronic applications and Internet resources in the field of medicine. We identified the attitude towards Internet self-diagnosis of doctors and pharmacists on the one hand and patients, on the other, as well as factors contributing to or impeding the growth of Internet diagnostics.

Tatiana K. Bogdanova - Associate Professor, Department of Business Analytics, National Research University Higher School of Economics
Address: 20, Myasnitskaya Street, Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation
E-mail: tanbog@hse.ru

Dmitry Y. Neklyudov - Data Analyst, Department of Big Data, StandardProject Ltd.; Senior Lecturer, Department of Business Analytics, National Research University Higher School of Economics
Address: 20, Myasnitskaya Street, Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation
E-mail: dyuneklyudov@hse.ru

Olga M. Uvarova - Leading Expert, Laboratory of Enterprise Competitiveness Problems Analysis, Senior Lecturer, Department of Business Analytics, National Research University Higher School of Economics
Address: 20, Myasnitskaya Street, Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation
E-mail: ouvarova@hse.ru

      The market of telecommunications services is one of the most important and promising sectors of Russian economics, and its evolution has an essential impact on development strategies of all industries. In recent times, we observe a tendency for the operators’ business to shift from providing communications services to supplying integrated ICT services. A positive trend line of market growth is predicted for the coming five years. However, the problem of keeping and even expanding the subscriber base is an ongoing task of all telecom companies. One of the possible solutions to this problem is developing a rational tariff policy, which may take into consideration not only the interests of the company and its investors, but also the subscribers’ preferences. One of the main components of the tariff policy is developing new tariff plans, which meet the afore-mentioned requirements.
      In the paper, a new concept of tariff plan development is proposed. It is based on identifying stable groups of existing tariff plans and subscribers’ preferences that are non-linearly related with tariff plan characteristics. The proposed method is based on the concept of client lifetime value (CLV) that characterizes discounted profit received from a customer during all the time he consumes services from the company. This approach gives us an opportunity to build-up a CLV forming model, relying on subscriber’s consumption of mobile services and price characteristics of tariff plans. This seems quite important in the conditions of volatility of the high tech market and intensive changes in patterns of subscribers’ consumption of services.
      Within the proposed concept, an info-logical model for developing and evaluating a new tariff plan is developed. The model is based on the synthesis of neural networks and genetic algorithm. The proposed model allows us to make assessment of combinations of tariff plans’ price characteristics created by telecom company specialists, and to determine an optimal combination representing local or global maximum of CLV in the given time interval. This may be done for each subscriber’s consumption profile and for the given period.
      The approach gives us an opportunity to choose a tariff plan (from existing and newly created tariffs) for every subscriber cluster, which satisfies subscribers and investor preferences while providing maximum company profit.

Yuriy P. Yekhlakov - Professor, Head of Department of Data Processing Automation, Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics
Address: 40, Prospect Lenina, Tomsk, 634050, Russian Federation
E-mail: upe@tusur.ru

Elena K. Malakhovskaya - Assistant Professor, Department of Data Processing Automation, Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics
Address: 40, Prospect Lenina, Tomsk, 634050, Russian Federation
E-mail: elena_tusur@mail.ru

      On the basis of conditions of low-budget software product promotion on the market, applied aspects of semiotics, methods of artificial intelligence and the results of practical experience of advertising agencies with Internet advertising for promotion on the corporate market of goods and services, this article proposes a method for developing design pattern for creating the content of communication messages (CM). The article presents a semantic network which describes the model for developing CM design patterns. It identifies key network concepts: the software product, consumer properties, positioning strategy, potential consumers, consumer preferences, features of information perception, a unique proposal, message distribution tools. Associative links between concepts are described. Elements of a semantic network dictionary are offered: the object of definitions, the characteristics of objects, the semantic units of characteristics; semantic unit description of lexical construction dictionary elements – target, key, alternative. Target lexical constructions describe and specify the format of the advertising message in the template. Key lexical constructions determine unique characteristics of the objects’ concept. Alternative lexical constructions are designed to strengthen the influence of semantic units and to exert additional impact on potential users. Communication message templates are combinations of semantic units with suggested messages that are most likely to motivate consumers to take certain actions.
      For practical approval of the use of templates for designing CM in product promotion to the corporate market, a multi-layered production semantic network has been developed. Network layer multiplicity matches a variety of concepts. Each layer consists of a set of objects that reflect the qualitative composition of the layer. The procedure for selecting variants of communication message templates is a non-cyclic chain of the semantic network using production rules. There are consistently selected elements: the representative of the target audience, the type of consumer behavior, the positioning strategy, the tool for disseminating communication messages, the structural element of communication messages. The results obtained can be useful for directors and managers of small IT companies in organizing Internet advertising of their products.

The work is conducted under the government assignment of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, project No. 8.8184.2017/8.9 

Nerses K. Khachatryan - Senior Researcher, Laboratory of Dynamic Models of Economy and Optimization, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences; Associate Professor, Department of Business Analytics, National Research University Higher School of Economics
Address: 47, Nakhimovsky Prospect, Moscow, 117418, Russian Federation
E-mail: nerses@cemi.rssi.ru; nkhachatryan@hse.ru

Andranik S. Akopov - Professor, Department of Business Analytics, National Research University Higher School of Economics; Leading Researcher, Laboratory of Dynamic Models of Economy and Optimization, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences 
Address: 20, Myasnitskaya Street, Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation
E-mail: aakopov@hse.ru

Fedor A. Belousov - Researcher, Laboratory of Dynamic Models of Economy and Optimization, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences; Associate Professor, Department of Business Analytics, National Research University Higher School of Economics
Address: 47, Nakhimovsky Prospect, Moscow, 117418, Russian Federation
E-mail: sky_tt@list.ru; fbelousov@hse.ru

      This article is devoted to the construction and research of a model for organizing cargo transportation between two node stations connected by a railway line which contains a certain number of intermediate stations. The organization of freight traffic is facilitated by a number of technologies. These technologies determine the rules for taking on cargo at the initial node station, the rules of interaction between neighboring stations, as well as the rule of distribution of cargo to the final node stations. The process of cargo transportation is accompanied by the set rule of control consisting in measuring the volumes of goods transported at neighboring stations with a single time lag. For such a model, one must determine possible modes of cargo transportation and describe their properties. Traffic flow is described by a finite-difference analog of the nonlinear parabolic equation. The control system is set by nonlocal restrictions, which distinguishes the solutions of traveling wave type. The class of such solutions is extremely narrow. This results in the need for the “correct” extension of a class of solutions of the traveling wave type to a class of quasi-solutions of the traveling wave type. One type of expansion presupposes assumptions of discontinuous solutions of the traveling wave type; the second type allows for violations in a small control system. An essential lack of discontinuous solutions is their limitlessness. In this work, we investigate quasi-solutions obtained with the help of a second type of extension. The distinctive feature of such quasi-solutions is the assumption of feasibility of not local restrictions with the set error. The question of the limitation of such quasi-solutions is investigated. Using computer model implementation we investigate the dependence of the error in the performance of nonlocal restrictions on model parameters, which are the characteristics of the technologies used to carry out the cargo flow.

This work was partially supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project No. 16-01-00110)

Larisa A. Bulysheva - Professor, Department of Information Technology and Decision Sciences, Old Dominion University
Address: 23529, Norfolk, VA, USA
E-mail: lbulyshe@odu.edu

Mikhail Y. Kataev - Professor, Department of Automated Control Systems,Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radioelectronics; Professor, Yurga Technological Institute (Branch), National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University
Address: 40, Lenin Avenue, Tomsk, 634050, Russian Federation 
E-mail: kataev.m@sibmail.com

Natalia V. Loseva - Deputy Head of Department of Insurance for Temporary Incapacity for Work and in Connection with Maternity, Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation,Tomsk Regional Branch  
Address: 61, Belinsky Street, Tomsk, 634034, Russian Federation  
E-mail: lonat@bk.ru

      Monitoring the quality of the services provided by public institutions is an important element in improving the effectiveness of the entire system of public services in the Russian Federation. As a rule, monitoring is associated with obtaining quantitative indicators of the level of satisfaction of citizens which characterize the quality of services provided. Monitoring results are the basis for modernizing the service management system. However, this approach allows us to evaluate only one side of the process by which a public institution renders services to the consumer of services (citizens). The other side of the issue is related to monitoring the processes of the institution itself. This direction also allows us to find approaches to improving the quality of service delivery, and to make the work of a state institution more efficient.
      This article describes the methodology for monitoring the process of providing services in a public institution based on business processes. The description of the activity of the institution in terms of the implementation of services is presented in the form of a set of business processes. It is shown that the main element of business processes that can be measured is the time of their implementation. On this basis, a mathematical model for assessing the quality of public service delivery is constructed, including both qualitative assessments (obtained from experts and clients of the institution) and quantitative assessments of the quality of service delivery based on measuring the time of business processes. The quantitative aspect of the proposed methodology is directly related to the main direction declared by the Government of the Russian Federation – the development of digital economy. As an example, the article considers such a state institution as the Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation.