Simulating operation of enterprises in epidemic conditions using agent-based and situational approaches
Abstract
During an epidemic, the search for balance in preventing spread of the disease and maintaining production and income of the population comes to the fore. Despite a significant number of socio-economic studies of consequences of the coronavirus crisis, there is still urgent need for the creation of tools for analyzing alternative management strategies by enterprises and the state ready for use in the event of an outbreak of new dangerous infections. The purpose of this study is to simulate changes in the work of industrial, trade and service enterprises associated with the spread of the epidemic and the impact of these changes on the volumes of production and services. The study presented here is using a combination of agent-based and situational modeling. The agent-based model reflects the population structure, contacts, employment and education, as well as public administration functions. Spread of the disease among population is reproduced on the basis of an automaton model. The work of enterprises in the context of the epidemic is described by a discrete-situational network, including production and personnel management. The models and algorithms we developed were built into an artificial society in the MOBIUS software package, which reproduces the population and economy of Russia, as well as its trade relations with foreign countries. The calculations were carried out within the baseline scenario and five epidemic scenarios reflecting various combinations of restrictive measures and financial incentives. Analysis of the results was carried out in the context of the industry affiliation of organizations. The greatest sensitivity to foreign economic conditions was shown by enterprises engaged in the extraction of minerals. When restrictions are relaxed abroad, the output of mining enterprises decreases by 0.3%, compared to a decrease of 2.2% under strict restrictions. Enterprises in the manufacturing industries experience a smaller decrease in output in the context of the epidemic compared to the previous year, but it is quite noticeable compared to the baseline scenario. In the service sector, the decline is 7.6% under strict restrictions and 0.1% under soft restrictions.
Acknowledgements
The work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation within the framework of project № 075-15-2024-525 dated 23.04.2024.
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