2012. No. 3(21)

Robert Karayev – Professor, Head of Laboratory of Ecological Processes Modeling, Institute of Cybernetics, National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan.
Address: 9, B.Vagabadze str., Baku, Azerbaijan
E-mail: karayevr@rambler.ru

The article deals with estimating the current state and development prospects of the information and communication technologies (ICT) in Azerbaijan in the framework of standard and policy documents of the Government of Azerbaijan, reflecting the mission of ICT at the stage of the Republic’s transition from resource exporting economy to resources-and-innovations ("non-oil") economy.

The main purpose of the search was to evaluate the possibility of further the country's ICT development to that of the developed countries, and to identify factors for further development of the industry in the context of the Government’s program "Development Concept "Azerbaijan – 2020: the Vision of the Future ".

ICT Development Index (IDI), proposed in 2007 by International Telecommunication Union  (ITU), was chosen as the key tool for evaluating and forecasting the development. The index was. IDI reflects the overall progress of certain countries towards forming the information society, and now it is widely used in the international evaluating practice.

The research showed that in 2011 the IDI levels for developing countries were for about half  of those of the developed countries, while the relative growth rates of the developing countries were much higher. Azerbaijan is one of the 10 countries with the highest IDI. From 2002 to 2010, Azerbaijan’s rating rose by eight positions – from the 100th to 74th place, while the absolute value of the index increased by 2.07 – from 1.71 to 3.78, which is above average IDI growth for the group under study. The article analyzes the methodology and results of comparative forecasting of the IDI trends change in the top 20 countries of the world and in Azerbaijan.

The research points out the necessity to consider the dynamics of IDI and of the development of the whole ICT sector as part of a systematic approach that takes into account Azerbaijan’s critical factors of ICT management. It gives a high evaluation to the possibility of using the paradigm of foresight forecast ("collective archetype" of the future), and several effective support tools such as dynamic PEST & SWOT analysis, methods of strategic and scenario planning, as well as the technology of cognitive modeling, making today a promising component of “NBIC-convergence”.

Victor Taratoukhine – Head of SAP Corporate Department, Faculty of Business Informatics, National Research University Higher School of Economics.  
Address: 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation.
E-mail: vtaratoukhine@hse.ru 

Ekaterina Bazhenova – Postgraduate Student, Department of Innovation and Business in Information Technologies, Faculty of Business Informatics, National Research University Higher School of Economics.   
Address: 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation.
E-mail: kbazhenova@hse.ru

Medium and small business development is one of the priority objectives of Governments of many countries in the World including Russia. Approach available to medium and small companies to information and communication technologies (ICT) would improve business conduct efficiency. How such ICTs would be used by companies is dependent from various approaches to corporate management, implementation and use policies. That is the reason why the ICTs should be viewed in direct inextricable connection with all business processes being implemented by the organization.

Analysis of the existing ICT practices being used in business process management demonstrated that various approaches have been developed mostly for big companies. For medium and small businesses different sources in literature provide identification of particular properties, which have to be taken into account in designing process management models however such developed models are encountered in isolated cases mostly in pilot projects. Therefore there is a necessity to develop a generalized business process management model for medium and small entities, which could be used by multiple medium and small companies and the relevant software designers.

The article provides analysis of the role played by information and communication technologies in doing medium and/or small business in less-developed countries. Based on this assumption the authors offer their own approach to developing business process concepts applicable to small and medium companies.

Further development of this article anticipates designing customized (taking into account specifics of business management process in medium and small entities) concept of medium and small business process management operated in an emerging state. In addition since medium and small companies are parts constituting the global business system, it deems reasonable to review small and medium businesses as customers and vendors contracted by bigger businesses. From the viewpoint of designing a company’s business process management policy such an approach would include consideration not only internal but also external business processes of a company. 

Yegor Kuznetsov – Postgraduate Student, Department of Computer Technologies in Design and Manufacturing, Institute of Radio Electronics and Information Technologies, Nizhniy Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R.E. Alekseev.
Address: 24, Minina str., Nizhny Novgorod, 603950, Russian Federation.
E-mail: yegor_s@rambler.ru

According to the estimations of Russian and foreign specialists, nowadays there are more than a hundred methods of prediction. This fact gives rise to the problem of selecting a method which would provide correct predictions for studied systems and their processes. The experience shows that the difficulty of implementation of a particular method can be assessed if we have a clear mathematical description - a mathematical model of a particular method, expressed, for instance, in a linguistic form as a prediction operator.

In practical researches the following functions are used as prediction operator: linear (ARMA, ARIMA), quadratic, power, exponential, logistic models. These models do not allow predicting all the processes, though in some cases they can be replaced by a linear combination of harmonic or other functions. Consequently, one of the objectives of the paper is to propose and prove a universal method that does not require the use of combinations of harmonic and linear functions .

The research results if formulating a new prediction method of economic temporary series based on preliminary optimal sampling of initial data. In the context of his method, a predictive model of the operator was chosen under which its parameters would be consistent with each other, and could be identified by a universal criterion of specially introduced optimal basic parameters.

The research studies key features of the new method as well as the algorithms of prediction  based on determining the most suitable basic parameters of processes, optimally sampled in terms of level and time into time series. It is shown that the information prediction systems, developed on the basis of the proposed method, can effectively predict the economic processes.

The proposed method has worked well on the tasks of predicting series, in which a priori information does not allow to draw conclusions about the functional dependence of the predicted value on the previous ones. In the cases where there is a priori information (e.g. information on a seasonal component), "classic", more popular methods of forecasting should be used, allowing to take this information into account. 

Anna Zinenko – Associate Professor, Department of Finance and Credit, Faculty of Engineering and Economics, Siberian State Aerospace University.
Address: 31, Krasnoyarsky Rabochy Av., Krasnoyarsk, 660014, Russian Federation.
E-mail: anna-z@mail.ru

This work is focused on the problem of projecting time series in stock market. The relevance of study represented by this article is confirmed by the fact that that classic investment concepts based on the assumption that market prices are random by nature have proven to be inconsistent back in 1990s. Such concepts never worked in volatile emerging Russian stock market. At the same time, alternative concepts are only being developed today. This article discusses the most well-proven concept of exponential and fractal nature of stock market changes. The founder of this theory is Benoît B. Mandelbrot, French and American mathematician.

The object of this work is to review present day’s major market indices for being subject to exponential laws. To achieve goals of the study, R/S analysis algorithm was used – the method applied by British hydrologist Harold Hurst in his analysis of Nile overflowing trends.

The paper looks at variations in three global stock indices – MICEX, Daw Jones Industrial Average and Shanghai Inc. The study resulted in a proof to the existence of trends (i.e. succeeding data being dependent on the preceding data) in variations in all the reviewed indices over the period under review. The novelty of results of the study is the customization of R/S analysis algorithm to Microsoft Office software tools. The author also performed an additional verification of equation and regression coefficients which was missing in Peters algorithm. Theoretical result of the paper is that R/S analysis is applied to Russian stock for the time (Eric Von Neumann tried to do that earlier but he used the algorithm described by Peters inconsistently and in a too simplified way). The practical effect of the work is that the trend nature revealed by the study opens up new opportunities for development and application of indicators enabling projection of market price trends. 

Boris Mirkin – Professor, Department of Data Analysis and Artificial Intelligence, School of Applied Mathematics and Information Science, Faculty of Business Informatics, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
Address: 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation.
E-mail: bmirkin@hse.ru

Ekaterina Chernyak – Student of “Mathematical modeling” MSc Program, School of Applied Mathematics and Information Science, Faculty of Business Informatics, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
Address: 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation.
E-mail: ktr.che@gmail.com

Olga Chugunova – Student of “Mathematical modeling” MSc Program, School of Applied Mathematics and Information Science, Faculty of Business Informatics, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
Address: 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation.
E-mail: olya.chug@gmail.com

There are two basic areas of unstructured text analysis where the first one is based on the use of natural language models and the second is based on static characteristics of text segments viewed as character strings. Advantage of the second method is that it is untied or unassociated with any particular language, its grammar or semantics. A significant internal tool within such area is a method of aggregated text representation in a suffix tree form annotated by text segment occurrence frequencies. Such a tool was successfully used to resolve clusterization and text tasks.

The goal to be achieved in this article is ensure a particular method modification to speed up and improve efficiency of computations and application in alternative areas of semantic text analysis. 

The article reviews two types of problems found in text information analysis: (a) connection between text body and the bulk of its word groups/phrases, and (b) connection between text body and application environment taxonomy.

Both problems are analyzed using a so called PS-table, which is actually a word-group/publication matrix established on an expert preset multitude of publications (texts) and key phrases. The PS-table comprises values, which characterize the text and word groups mutual relevance obtained on the suffix tree basis as standardized characteristics of aggregated average conditional symbol probabilities.

To resolve problem one the PS-tables were used to achieve two purposes: first to analyze text unit structure and to analyze the aggregated word groups. The first purpose used the modified concept cluster analysis method leading to meaningful and easy to interpret tree of publications taxonomy in terms of word groups. The second purpose was achieved through a graph of associations between word groups allowing provision of a generalizing description of all multiple publications. To illustrate the process the authors used a series of newspaper publications and word groups characterizing business processes in Russia after the economic downfall of 2008.

To investigate problem two the authors devised a method of taxonomy completion/finishing based on the analysis of structure and texts of Russian Wikipedia entries. This practical methodology is illustrated with an example of mathematics taxonomy “probability theory and mathematical statistics”.

Victor Kokhov – Associate Professor, Department of Higher Mathematics, Faculty of Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
Address: 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation.
E-mail: viktorkokhov@rambler.ru

Victor Kokhov – Student of MSc Program, Department of Applied Mathematics, Institute of Automation and Computer Technology, National Research University «Moscow Power Engineering Institute» (NRU MPEI).
Address: 14, Krasnokazarmennaya str., Moscow, 111250, Russian Federation.
E-mail: viktor-kokhov@ya.ru

Normally, graph theory models and methods are used to analyze relationships between complex structure elements of various nature. In such a case, relationships between elements are continuous and will not change with time. Such graphs are called “statistical” graphs. When relationships between structural elements are changing with time, then the traditional “statistical” graphs become inapplicable for generation and modeling. To date, the most important trend is Development of graph analysis methods with changeable structure  in time (temporal orgraphs or Т-orgraphs). 

The purpose of this study is reviewing new methods for T-orgraph structural analysis taking account of importance of the given fragments. The analysis focuses on building up new complexity models allowing to investigate changes to both local (fragments) and global (structure in general) features of T-orgraphs, определять сходство Т-орграфов и выявлять тенденции изменения свойств.

The study suggests a system of six models characterizing global features of Т-orgraphs. All of these models characterize structural spectral complexity of Т-orgraphs in extendable fragment ranges. There are two approaches suggested for structural analysis of T-orgraph local properties: on a continuous structure and Т-orgraph structure divided into parts upon  deleting certain peaks or curves. Comparison of two approaches to calculation of contribution by fragments to overall complexity has resulted into separating the first approach a more accurate.

The suggested complexity models can be viewed as a hierarchical clarifying analysis system allowing to resolve issues on investigation of T-orgraph dynamical properties, particularly monotones of their change. The complexity models allow to analyze the significance of temporal orgraphs and their fragments, and also analyze their change tendencies. An example of application of the suggested models and methods can be performance change monitoring for Т-orgraphs as actor communication models within corporate social networks for managers to take reasoned management decisions. T-orgraph analysis methods have been implemented in Graph-model Workshop System and used in educational process at Higher School of Economy National Research University and Moscow Energy Institute National Research University.

Alexey Isavnin – Professor, Department of Mathematical Methods in Economics, Division of Economics, Kazan Federal University, branch in Naberezhnye Chelny.
Address: 1 (5/10), Stroitelei bul., Naberezhnye Chelny, Tatarstan, 423819, Russian Federation.
E-mail: isavnin@mail.ru

Damir Galiev – Student, Department of Mathematical Methods in Economics, Division of Economics, Kazan Federal University, branch in Naberezhnye Chelny.
Address: 1 (5/10), Stroitelei bul., Naberezhnye Chelny, Tatarstan, 423819, Russian Federation.
E-mail: damir.galiev@mail.ru

Forming an effective investment profile is one of the most common tasks in financial sphere. The quantitative method allows raising the quality of investment profile. We understand quality as is the required ratio between risk and yield of investment profile. The majority of today’s analytical programs does not have the opportunity to design advanced quantitative models of optimal investment profile choice.

This paper describes mathematical models and algorithms, as well as logics and architecture of computer software for forming an effective structure of investment profile. The feature of the approach is using the most practicable models and designing a friendly interface for solving practical problems in the financial sphere. The developed system is rather flexible: it allows running a wide class of models for choosing an effective investment profile, applying prediction models for time series of returns on assets, and considering outside experts’ reviews. The key feature of the system is an opportunity to cooperate with stock market sales terminal.

The starting point of the system’s logic is the concept of optimizing "risk-return on asset." The architecture of the computer software uses two types of prediction models of the time series of asset returns: autoregressive moving-average model (ARMA) and a two-layered neural network model for forecasting time series. Module of genetic algorithms is also used to solve optimization problems with non-differentiable objective functions and limitations.

Experiments were performed based the data of the Russian stock market (the Moscow stock exchange). The results of the experiments show the viability of the proposed models and the possibility of their application in practice for a wide range of economic agents, from individual investors to large funds (including pension). Further development of the research is to make and add new models and to improve the interface of computer software

Dmitry Isaev – Associate Professor, Department of Business Analytics, Faculty of Business Informatics, National Research University Higher School of Economics.  
Address: 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation.
E-mail: disaev@hse.ru

Modern developments in the field of Performance Management Information Support Systems (PMISS) are associated with different aspects of development of such systems, and have a considerable effect on management theory and practice. However, at present any integrated methodology for design, planning, implementation and practical use of PMISS is not available. That’s why formulation of principles and approaches to PMISS design and development seems actual both from theoretical and practical points of view.

In the paper the questions of monitoring and planning of PMISS development are discussed. The role of the monitoring and planning functions in the general development management system is disclosed, basic requirements to these functions and general principles of their practical implementation are formulated. It is argued that development of such systems should rely on certain basic principles that correspond with the nature of such systems. The principles are: strategic compliance, completeness, target orientation, measurability, decomposition, dynamics, rolling planning and feasibility. These principles allow to describe the main elements of PMISS monitoring and planning – perspectives, aspects, individual and integrated metrics, development trajectories, maturity levels and appropriate target values, development programs and their performance metrics, as well as deviations between planned and actual trajectories.

The perspectives of further research in this field are related with development of typical (referent) model of monitoring and planning systems, modeling of cause-and-effect relations, developing of recommendations regarding development program choice (using decision making methods), as well as formulation of recommendations in the field of transition from the referent model of PMISS monitoring and planning to specific models. 

Martin Arakelyan – Deputy Director of Department, IBS Expertise Ltd.
Address: 9Б, Dmitrovskoe shosse, Moscow, 127434, Russian Federation.
E-mail: MArakelian@ibs.ru

Eugene Chepin – Senior Researcher, Deputy Head of Department of Systems Architecture, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University).
Address: 9, Institutskiy per., Dolgoprudny, Moscow Region, 141700, Russian Federation.
E-mail: EChepin@mail.ru

Alexander Shabanov – Senior Researcher, Chief Expert, IBS Expertise Ltd.
Address: 9Б, Dmitrovskoe shosse, Moscow, 127434, Russian Federation.
E-mail: AShabanov@ibs.ru

The necessity this work is explained bythe fact that quite often corporations (both customers and developers of integrated management systems or limited IT solutions) together with IT platforms suppliers have to face serious problems when organizing their work on the stages of design, development, implementation and operation of the systems. Usually these difficulties are supposed to be solved in the framework of ordinarymanagement and organizationalpractices. Therefore, a large system integrator and the customer have to look for new solutions, techniques and methods, which form the local corporate standard.

The aim of the studyis to summarize the practice of designing specialized control-management systems with special stands, the latter being illustrated by practical solutions.

This results in a stand, presenting a flexibleconfiguration of IT components demonstrating the possible solutions to the task and building the system. This provides inventorying the whole set of tools of the customer’s IT infrastructure and allows using methods of setting up software configuration and its subsequent implementation in the IT infrastructure. Software products, such as BMC Business Service Management and HP Software Manager, form the logics and processing basis of functioning for control systems and, simultaneously, stand as the software constructing information forms and interfaces. Specialized stands ensure the implementation of hardware and software solutions both for standard tasks and for more difficult ones which are becoming typical within the competence profile of the firm.

This described approach is suitable to apply for solving tasks specific to the experience and competence profile of a particular firm. The effect is gained due to economy at the projects scale, a factor of the experiment-based curve, good training for the team, as well as development of innovative solutions on the basis of the stand. A graph is provided showing the reduction of time of introduction when installing software on the stand.